Fed Relief Fades as Bitcoin Trades at $116K to $118K Make-or-Break Zone

Key Takeaways

• Range trade: BTC is currently trading between $116,800 (near-term support) and $118,000 (overhead resistance).
• ETF Flows: On September 18, ETFs came back strongly into inflows with Ethereum spot ETFs adding $213 million, and Bitcoin spot ETFs adding $163 million.
• Derivatives concentration: Options open interest at a record 500,000 BTC ahead of the September 26 expiry; perpetual OI pulled back to ~380,000 BTC.
• Structure & breadth: Altcoin Season Index at 80 shows altseason persists as BNB, SOL, and others outperformed; BNB briefly hit $1,004 intraday.
• On-chain signal: BTC saw the second-largest inflow to accumulation addresses in 2025, and 95 percent of the supply is currently in profit. This is supportive of the current price structure, but profit-taking risk is elevated.