Tactical Trim, Timely Rebuild – Outperformance in a Choppy Week

Asset	Positioning Transition	13 June Price	Weekly High	20 June Price	Change	Verdict
BTC	65% → 60% → 70%	$104,500	$106,900	$104,700	+0.2%	✅ Core BTC position preserved through volatility
ETH	20% → 7% → 10%	$2,525	$2,605	$2,520	–0.2%	✅ Minimized exposure ahead of ETF flow weakness
SOL	5% → 3% → 5%	$144	$157	$152.80	+6.1%	✅ Tactical re-entry captured altcoin rebound

What We Got Right ✅

➕ Reduced Exposure into Weakness, Rebuilt into Strength
We trimmed exposure midweek as geopolitical tensions rose and ETF flows weakened. As selling pressure slowed, we rebuilt core positions into improving price action and structural demand signals—particularly from corporates like Semler Scientific.

➕ Stayed Defensive as ETH and SOL Lost Leadership
We correctly cut Ethereum and Solana as ETF inflows declined and macro risks grew. While ETH stabilized, it lagged BTC. Our timing reduced volatility and preserved flexibility to rotate back in as conditions improved.

➕ Solana Re-entry Caught Early Upside
SOL underperformed into the geopolitical flush, but we added back selectively as it led the recovery. Its high-beta nature makes it ideal for short-term rebound plays, which we tactically captured this week.

What We Got Wrong ❌

❌ Price Action Disconnected from Fundamentals
Strong institutional demand (ETF inflows, corporate accumulation) failed to translate into sustained price momentum, especially midweek. Despite the right macro and structural signals, markets reacted more to fear than fundamentals.

❌ Overweight ETH Before Rotation Faded
We carried a 20% ETH allocation heading into the week, expecting continued ETF inflows. However, momentum quickly faded after Sharplink’s news and the streak broke. We trimmed, but earlier action could have avoided more drag.

Key Lessons

? Macro Signals Can Be Drowned by Narrative Fear
Despite constructive inflation and structural fund flows, war tensions and hawkish FOMC messaging disrupted market momentum. Risk management trumps conviction in uncertain environments.

? Structural Demand Remains a Safety Net
Semler’s BTC roadmap and Strategy’s billion-dollar purchase show corporate accumulation remains intact. This long-term signal supports keeping a strong BTC anchor, even when short-term volatility dominates.

? ETF Flow Divergence Signals Rotation Risk
The breakdown in ETH’s 19-day inflow streak was an early warning. Watching not just total flows, but their consistency, is critical in timing rotations between majors.

Final Takeaway

This week was marked by high uncertainty—escalating geopolitical risks, hawkish Fed signals, and fading ETF momentum—but also by resilience. We stayed nimble, cutting exposure when risk spiked and rotating back into strength as the market stabilized.

BTC remained the structural leader, buoyed by continued institutional support. ETH showed signs of cooling, while SOL rebounded sharply off lows, validating our tactical re-entry. With shorts building and corporate demand rising, the conditions for a breakout are forming—but timing remains critical.

Understanding Our Benchmark and Positioning Terms

Our benchmark is a market-cap weighted index composed of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) — the three most widely held and institutionally tracked assets in the space. Weightings are determined based on each asset’s relative market capitalization at the start of the review period.

When we refer to “neutral weight,” we mean a position aligned with the benchmark weight. An “overweight” position indicates we hold a larger allocation to that asset than its benchmark weight, reflecting higher conviction or expected outperformance. Conversely, an “underweight” position means our allocation is below the benchmark weight, typically due to near-term risks or weaker conviction.