According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, DeepSeek officially announced the release of a preview version of DeepSeek-V4 today. However, on Polymarket, the specific release date of DeepSeek V4 has become embroiled in three rounds of UMA (Unified Management Action) disputes. The reason is that the settlement rules for this event state that only versions representing the evolution of the core DeepSeek V series and "clearly positioned as the successor to DeepSeek-V3" qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specific models, R-series inference models, and experimental or preview versions (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), do not qualify unless they are positioned as the new flagship V series model. Therefore, some opponents believe that DeepSeek officially released the V4-Preview version today, not the official V4, and that "DeepSeek V4 will be released on April 24th" should not be settled as "Yes," but rather "No." Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Huoxun Finance, prediction market platform Polymarket announced on its X platform that it released enhanced market integrity rules last month to combat insider trading. When it discovers users using classified government information for trading, the platform will refer the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperate with the investigation. Polymarket absolutely does not tolerate insider trading, and this recent arrest by US federal authorities proves the effectiveness of this system. The arrest refers to the arrest this Thursday of a special forces soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, who is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's downfall. According to sources, federal investigators believe the commando placed over $33,000 on Polymarket hours before Trump announced Maduro's capture in January. For details on insider trading on the Polymarket platform during the Maduro capture operation, see "When War is Settled Before News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' the Maduro Capture 6 Days in Advance."

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket posted on its X platform, stating, "Last month, we released enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we discover users using classified government information for trading, we refer the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperate with their investigation. Polymarket has zero tolerance for insider trading, and today's arrest proves this system is effective." The arrest Polymarket refers to is the arrest this Thursday by U.S. federal authorities of a special forces soldier involved in the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro. The soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power. Sources say federal investigators believe the commando placed over $33,000 on the prediction market Polymarket hours before President Trump announced Maduro's arrest in January. For details on insider trading on Polymarket related to the Maduro arrest operation, see "When War is Settled Before News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' the Maduro Arrest 6 Days in Advance."

According to Huoxun Finance, MegaETH announced that it will hold a token generation event (TGE) on April 30th. The probability of MegaETH issuing its token before April 30th is currently 95% on Polymarket. This result may be related to the market's settlement rules. The settlement rules of this prediction market are: if MegaETH officially launches its publicly transferable and tradable governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified date, the prediction market result will be "yes"; otherwise, it will be "no". Simply issuing a related announcement does not meet the determination condition, and this key rule may have caused the probability to not reach 100%. The dynamics of this prediction market are being closely monitored.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul has filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, alleging that their prediction markets are essentially unlicensed gambling activities. The complaint claims that the platforms' marketing methods and event contract pricing structures meet the state's definition of gambling. This case further exacerbates the conflict between state-level regulation and the federal jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). (CoinDesk)

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that MegaETH announced today that it will conduct a TGE on April 30th, and the probability of "MegaETH launching its token before April 30th" on Polymarket is currently 95%, which may be related to the settlement rules. The market's settlement rules state that if MegaETH officially launches its governance token before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date specified in the title, the prediction market result will be judged as "yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "no". Another key rule, "the token must be publicly transferable and tradable; merely issuing a related announcement does not meet the judgment conditions," may explain why the probability does not reach 100%. Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Odaily Seer, in the Polymarket prediction event for the NHL Western Conference First Round series between the Colorado Avalanche and the Los Angeles Kings, one account (0x47a83fb1debcd11cc93f3bbbf5aeb3a5caeb52f9) purchased approximately $58,800 worth of bets on the Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings game. The opening price was 60¢, and the current price is 59.5¢, resulting in a floating loss of approximately $494. The Colorado Avalanche currently leads the NHL Western Conference First Round series 2-0 against the Los Angeles Kings. The first two games were decided by a single goal, and the games have generally been low-scoring. This game will be played at the Los Angeles Kings' home stadium. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.

According to Odaily Seer, an account (address: 0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782) that lost over $4 million in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference First Round Game 3 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets," purchased $100,000 worth of bets on the Nuggets giving a 1.5-point advantage to the Timberwolves 10 minutes before the game started, with an average opening price of 46¢. Game 3 of the NBA Western Conference First Round, between the Timberwolves and Nuggets, will tip off at 9:30 AM Beijing time today. The series is currently tied 1-1. The Timberwolves' starting lineup is McDaniels, Randle, Gobert, Edwards, and DiVincenzo; the Nuggets' starting lineup is Johnson, Spencer Jones, Jokic, Braun, and Murray. Their key player, Aaron Gordon, will miss Game 3 of the series against the Timberwolves due to a calf injury. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference First Round Game 3 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets," an account with profits exceeding $3.6 million (address: 0xdb27bf2ac5d428a9c63dbc914611036855a6c56e) purchased $90,000 worth of bets on the Timberwolves defeating the Nuggets, with an average opening price of 45.7¢; additionally, it purchased $80,000 worth of bets on the Timberwolves receiving a 2.5-point spread to defeat the Nuggets. Game 3 of the NBA Western Conference First Round playoffs between the Timberwolves and Nuggets will tip off at 9:30 AM Beijing time today. The series is currently tied 1-1. The Timberwolves' starting lineup is McDaniels, Randle, Gobert, Edwards, and DiVincenzo; the Nuggets' starting lineup is Johnson, Spencer Jones, Jokic, Braun, and Murray. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that, according to ABC News, citing sources familiar with the matter, U.S. federal authorities arrested a special forces soldier involved in the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro on Thursday. The soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from office. Sources say federal investigators believe the commando placed over $33,000 on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced Maduro's arrest in January. This series of bets, which netted over $409,000, immediately triggered an internal review of the prediction market, launching a months-long insider trading investigation.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket is embroiled in insider trading controversy due to predictions related to US President Donald Trump's policies and statements. Data shows that from April 5th to 8th alone, the market generated approximately 413 million predictions related to the situation in Iran, involving over $100 million. Analysts point out that Trump's highly uncertain decision-making style has significantly boosted prediction market activity, with issues such as whether he will take military action against Iran and whether he will push for a ceasefire becoming high-frequency trading targets. Related trading volumes surged rapidly after his social media posts. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. has been revealed to hold shares in Polymarket and also serves as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data shows that political predictions have become the second largest prediction market category after sports. Despite the escalating controversy, the overall attitude of US regulators remains lenient, driving the continued expansion of this sector. (Fortune)

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, Polymarket has a new listing for "Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?", with a current probability of "Yes" at 74%. The contractual rules for this event are as follows: if a formal announcement is made before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, that Cursor will be acquired or merged with SpaceX, the market decision is "Yes"; otherwise, the market decision is "No". A merger or acquisition involving Cursor or its parent company (if applicable) with SpaceX or its parent company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., qualifies, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs, as long as Cursor or SpaceX makes an announcement within the market's timeframe, the result is "Yes". Announcements of partial sales may also qualify, provided the acquiring company obtains a controlling stake in another company. "Controlling stake" refers to a change of ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% equity, or equivalent control through voting rights and governance rights); transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling stake do not qualify. The primary decision-making source for this market will be official information from Cursor and SpaceX; however, consensus from credible reporting can also be considered. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Odaily reports that Pyth Network has announced a major strategic transformation: a comprehensive upgrade of its infrastructure and a shift in its economic model from token incentives to revenue-driven growth. According to two core proposals (OP-PIP-100 and OP-PIP-103), PythNet will be gradually shut down by 2026, with a focus shifting to the next-generation underlying layer, Lazer. The OIS staking reward mechanism will be terminated (parameter Y set to 0), but the security staking mechanism will be retained. Meanwhile, PYTH Reserve has used protocol revenue to repurchase approximately 12 million PYTH tokens. Commercial products (Pyth Pro, Data Marketplace) have become the core of growth, with leading prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi already integrated, and institutional adoption continuing to climb.

According to RootData, a Web3 asset data platform, the cryptocurrency investment portfolio of Federal Reserve Chairman-elect Kevin Warsh covers multiple areas, including blockchain infrastructure, on-chain financial protocols, institutional financial services, and application tools. Structurally, his investments can be divided into four main segments: first, underlying infrastructure, including networks and scaling solutions such as Solana, Optimism, and Lightning Network; second, on-chain finance, encompassing DeFi and trading protocols such as Compound, dYdX, and Polymarket; third, institutional and financial services, including asset management, banking, and funding channel projects such as Polychain, Scalar Capital, Kinetic, and OnJuno; and fourth, applications and tools, involving user access and development tool projects such as Dapper Labs, Crossmint, and Tenderly. Overall, Warsh's strategy involves layering financial protocols on top of infrastructure and focusing on controlling institutional funding access. This approach differs significantly from typical crypto-native VCs and aligns more closely with the market structure and institutional concerns of investors with traditional financial backgrounds. On April 21, Warsh held a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. According to his recent compliance disclosures, if he were to assume a position in the Federal Reserve or other regulatory bodies in the future, he would be required to manage his holdings.

According to Huoxun Finance, a user profited $34,000 in the Polymarket weather forecast market by interfering with weather sensors at Paris airport. Polymarket previously used sensor data from the French meteorological service near Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport for settlement. The user purchased temperature options at extremely low prices, far exceeding market expectations. Subsequently, the user used a portable heat source to heat the sensors, causing the readings to spike dramatically in a short period and be recorded as the day's highest temperature. This behavior occurred twice, on April 6th and April 15th. The French meteorological service has detected the anomaly and filed charges.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event that "the US will invade Iran before 2027," a high-win-rate account (ID: Car, address: 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b) with profits exceeding $1.25 million currently holds approximately $34,000 in "No" positions, with an average opening price of 66.8¢. According to the market rules, the standard for determining an "invasion" is: the US launching a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any Iranian territory before 23:59 (ET) on December 31, 2026. If no such military action occurs, the market will settle for "No." The rules specifically emphasize that the territorial scope is based on the actual control situation as of November 4, 2025. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Huoxun Finance, Polymarket, which has long dominated the prediction market in terms of trading volume, is facing multiple challenges. According to data from Dune Analytics, its global trading volume has been surpassed by its main competitor, Kalshi. In terms of valuation, Kalshi's valuation reached $22 billion after announcing a new round of financing last month, while Polymarket's valuation is $15 billion after receiving a $600 million investment from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Polymarket's biggest bottleneck is the delayed official launch in the US market; its US application is still in the testing phase, and its trading volume in March was only one-twentieth of Kalshi's. Technical challenges posed by the blockchain architecture, repeated product launch delays, recent fee adjustments causing user dissatisfaction, and an exchange outage lasting over an hour continue to plague the platform. Furthermore, Polymarket's allowing users to bet on controversial topics such as war and nuclear explosions has prompted a letter from Democratic members of Congress to the CFTC requesting intervention. ICE CEO Sprecher remains optimistic but admits it's either a complete failure or a home run.

According to Odaily, a user profited $34,000 in the Polymarket weather forecast market by interfering with weather sensors at Paris airport. Polymarket previously used data from the Météo France sensor near Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport for settlement. The user purchased temperature options at extremely low prices, far exceeding market expectations. The user then used a portable heat source to heat the sensor, causing the readings to spike dramatically in a short period and be recorded as the day's highest temperature. This behavior occurred twice, on April 6th and April 15th. Météo France has detected the anomaly and filed charges.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event "Trump will continue to block the Strait of Hormuz before April 30," an account with an 81% win rate (@Pajamapants) purchased $40,000 worth of shares, predicting that Trump would not end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before April 30, with an average opening price of 68.5¢. The specific rule is: if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announces the end of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will turn "yes." Otherwise, the market will ultimately decide "no." The statement must clearly and explicitly state that the US has lifted, ended, or will lift or end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the specified date, or use equivalent, clear language to explicitly state that the blockade has ended or will end on the specified date (e.g., a statement explicitly stating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased qualifies). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly stating the lifting of the blockade are insufficient. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks are not eligible. Written public statements by Donald Trump (such as posts on his personal Truth Social account) will be eligible. Videos posted by him on social media will also qualify for a “for” resolution. The primary source of solutions for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives; however, credible consensus reports may also be used. Note: This market will be determined solely based on whether a qualified announcement is issued within the specified timeframe. Whether a blockade is effectively enforced, or whether sea traffic has resumed, will not be considered without a qualified announcement. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference First Round Game 2: Rockets vs. Lakers," an account with a 57% win rate (address: 0x9f2fe025f84839ca81dd8e0338892605702d2ca8) purchased $100,000 worth of bets on the Rockets defeating the Lakers, with an average opening price of 67¢. Game 2 of the NBA Western Conference First Round playoffs between the Rockets and the Lakers will tip off at 10:30 AM Beijing time today. Currently, the series is 1-0, with the Lakers leading. The Lakers' starting lineup is James, Hachimura, Ayton, Smart, and Kennard; the Rockets' starting lineup is Durant, Smith, Shin Jing, Amen, and Okogie. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.