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08:08
A trader spent $46,600 on Polymarket betting that Russia and Ukraine would not cease hostilities before the end of 2026.
According to Lookonchain's monitoring, trader itscherry (0x1c37...18de) joined Polymarket back in July 2024 but had never traded before. Today, this user suddenly spent $46,600 betting that "Russia and Ukraine will not cease hostilities by the end of 2026".
19:03
On Polymarket, the probability of Rick Rieder being elected Federal Reserve Chairman is currently reported at 32%, up 24% in the past week.
According to Polymarket data, Odaily reports that Kevin Warsh's probability of being elected Federal Reserve Chair is currently at 45%, Rick Rieder's at 32%, Kevin Hassett's at 6%, and Christopher Waller's at 13%. Related reading: "The Last Candidate for Fed Chair: Rick Rieder's Stance on Crypto?"
11:05
An address placed a $38,000 bet that Trump would acquire Greenland by 2027.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a newly created address named "trumpery" (0x622...b2f7) has invested $80,000 on Polymarket, betting that "Trump will acquire Greenland by 2027".
05:56
Uniswap founder explains pricing discrepancies in prediction markets: Not a user structure issue, but rather due to differences in event definitions and rules.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams pointed out in an article on the X platform that the prediction market Kalshi prices the "US acquisition of Greenland" at approximately 42%, while Polymarket prices it at only 15%–23%. This significant price difference is not due to differences in user groups, but rather to the differences in the specific betting targets themselves. If it were merely a difference in user structure, a trader with access to both platforms could quickly eliminate the price difference through arbitrage. However, the reality is that Polymarket prices the "probability of the event occurring within 2026 (currently around 23%)," while Kalshi prices the "probability of the event occurring throughout Trump's entire term (currently around 45%)." These are not the same event. Furthermore, differences in question wording, settlement conditions, oracle design, and different risk pricing logic all contribute to the price differences.
20:46
On Polymarket, the probability of Rick Rieder being elected Federal Reserve Chairman has risen to 27%.
According to Polymarket data, Odaily reports that Kevin Warsh's probability of being elected Federal Reserve Chair is currently 53%, Rick Rieder's probability has risen to 27%, Kevin Hassett's probability has fallen to 5%, and Christopher Waller's probability is currently 11%. Related reading: "The Last Candidate for Fed Chair: Rick Rieder's Stance on Crypto?"
14:33
Unusual Whales launches new tool for monitoring insider trading in the prediction market Polymarket.
Huoxun Finance News, January 21 – According to Bloomberg, financial data provider UnusualWhales has launched a new tool to monitor unusual trading and potential insider betting on the prediction market platform Polymarket. This move stems from widespread allegations of insider trading on the platform following its accurate bets on events such as the Venezuelan coup attempt. The tool, named "UnusualPredictions," identifies users who may have privileged access to information by analyzing indicators such as traders' profitability, historical records, and betting timing.
13:36
Unusual Whales launches new tools to monitor unusual trading and insider betting in the prediction market Polymarket.
Odaily Planet Daily reports that financial data provider Unusual Whales has launched a new tool to monitor unusual trading and potential insider betting on the prediction market platform Polymarket. This move stems from widespread allegations of insider trading on the platform following its accurate bets on events such as the Venezuelan coup attempt. The tool, named "Unusual Predictions," identifies users who may have privileged access to information by analyzing indicators such as traders' profitability, historical records, and betting timing. (Bloomberg)
00:18
Forecast market weekly fees exceeded $2.7 million, setting a new record.
According to Dune data, prediction market revenue exceeded $2.7 million in a single week, setting a new record. The opinion market accounted for 54.3% of this, while Polymarket's 15-minute price fluctuation market generated $787,000 in revenue, representing 28.4% of total revenue.
12:48
Analysis: Wall Street is again betting on the Trump-TACO deal, with market forecasts indicating only a 17% probability of tariffs being imposed on Europe.
According to Polymarket data, only 17% of users believe that Trump's threat to impose all tariffs on Europe will take effect on February 1st. This market sentiment reflects the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading strategy, where investors bet that Trump will eventually abandon his tariff threats. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank pointed out that the market "has more room for volatility," noting that the market has previously suffered losses due to overreacting to tariff threats. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan believes the market is behaving rationally, and bond investors do not seem to be taking these threats too seriously. (Fortune)
12:25
Hungarian regulators have temporarily blocked the Polymarket domain and its subdomains.
Odaily Planet Daily reports that Hungarian regulator Szabályozott Tevékenységek Felügyeleti Hatósága has temporarily blocked the domain name and subdomains of the prediction market Polymarket, citing "organizing gambling activities as illegal." The restriction is expected to remain in effect until the regulator completes its review. Some users have reported being unable to access the Polymarket platform using Hungarian IP addresses. (Cointelegraph)
12:00
Portuguese regulators have ordered the prediction market Polymarket to cease operations in the country.
Huoxun Finance reported on January 20th that, according to CoinDesk, Portugal's betting regulator, SRIJ, has ordered the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket to cease operations in the country within 48 hours. This comes after betting on the January 18th presidential election exceeded €103 million (approximately $120 million). The regulator pointed out that Polymarket does not hold a Portuguese betting license, and Portuguese law prohibits betting on the outcome of real-world events such as politics, allowing only sports, casino games, and horse racing betting. Polymarket is currently still accessible in Portugal, but the regulator may soon require internet service providers to block it.
02:32
Polymarket whales profited over $10.5 million in two days, after previously incurring losses exceeding $6.8 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, according to Odaily Planet Daily, beachboy4 (0xc2e...be51) made over $10.5 million in profits from five predictions within two days, recovering a previous loss of over $6.8 million, and currently has a cumulative profit of approximately $395,000. His single bet amount has increased from hundreds of thousands of dollars to over $3 million.
02:01
Trump may drop Hassett nomination; Kevin Warsh leads predictions for the next Federal Reserve Chairman.
According to Huoxun Finance on January 19, White House economic advisor Hassett hinted that he is more likely to remain in his current position, essentially withdrawing from the race for Federal Reserve Chair. Data from Kalshi and Polymarket shows that former Governor Kevin Warsh's probability of being elected has risen to approximately 60%, ahead of Hassett (15%–16%) and current Governor Waller (13%–14%). Powell's term expires on May 15, and Trump is expected to announce his successor this month.
00:10
The race for the Federal Reserve chairmanship takes an unexpected turn: Hassett hints at elimination, Warsh's chances of winning surge.
Odaily Planet Daily reports that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated that Trump is likely to keep him in his current position, which would disqualify him from the race to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump expressed reservations last week about nominating Hassett to succeed current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. At a White House event, he told the National Economic Council director, "To be honest, I actually hope you stay where you are." Hassett was once considered one of the leading candidates, alongside Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. According to sources, it is now seen as a four-way race, with Rieder's candidacy gaining momentum recently as some believe he may have a better chance of Senate confirmation. After Trump's remarks, traders on the prediction market website Kalshi raised Warsh's chances of getting the job to 60%, while Hassett and Waller's chances were only 16% and 14%, respectively. Polymarket traders also expressed similar sentiments, with Warsh receiving 60% support, Hassett 15%, and Waller 13%. Previously, Warsh and Hassett were neck and neck. Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman ends on May 15. The selection process was led by Bessett. "There are many excellent candidates, and the president is likely to make the right decision, believing that this is the best place for me right now," Hassett said on Sunday regarding the White House. He said he was "flattered and grateful" for Trump's comments about his future, calling the president "a really good person." Trump indicated he would appoint Powell's successor this month but did not provide a specific date. (Jinshi)
06:01
One trader made $6.12 million in a single day on Polymarket, almost recovering all his losses.
According to Huoxun Finance on January 18th, as monitored by OnchainLens, trader beachboy4 made a single-day profit of $6.12 million on Polymarket. The trader recovered almost all of his losses in one day, and the remaining losses are now reduced to $687,824.
04:16
Traders on Polymarket made $6.12 million in a single day, recovering nearly 90% of their previous losses.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, trader beachboy4 (beachboy4) made a single-day profit of $6.12 million on Polymarket. The trader recovered almost all of his losses in one day, and the remaining losses are now reduced to $687,000.
09:03
Polymarket reports that the probability of Kevin Warsh being elected Federal Reserve Chairman has risen to 57%.
According to data from Polymarket, Odaily reports that Kevin Warsh's chances of being elected Federal Reserve Chairman are currently 57%, Kevin Hassett's are 15%, Christopher Waller's are 15%, and Rick Rieder's are [not specified].
16:27
Market forecasts indicate that Warsh is the frontrunner for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, while Hassett is significantly lagging behind.
According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, Hassett's probability of being nominated for the Fed Chair has dropped to 15%, roughly the same as Federal Reserve Governor Waller, while Kevin Warsh's probability has risen to over 60%, making him the frontrunner and far ahead of other candidates. Today, when Trump spoke about Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, he said, "We'll see if he stays in his current position." This statement suggests that Trump may have someone else in mind for the Fed Chair nomination, and market expectations for the Fed Chair nomination have shifted from a two-way race between Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh to Warsh leading alone. It's worth noting that Hassett himself commented on this before Trump's speech today, saying, "Wash and Rieder would also be great Fed Chairs." Perhaps Hassett already knew Trump's final choice.
10:40
Bitcoin and Ethereum Evening Trading Recommendations and Future Trend Analysis: 1/16

Bitcoin and Ethereum Evening Trading Recommendations and Future Trend Analysis: 1/16 The current market is in a clear upward trend, with strong bullish signals from the technical indicators. The bullish alignment of the moving average system and the recent golden cross further strengthen the market's bullish expectations. Meanwhile, the price is approaching the strong support level of 93500, accompanied by a bullish engulfing pattern, increasing the possibility of a rebound. However, insufficient trading volume data and the failure to effectively confirm the volume-price relationship introduce some uncertainty to the reliability of the technical signals. The current market is in an upward trend, and the golden cross and bullish moving average alignment create a strong bullish resonance, strengthening momentum. Aggressive strategies may consider positioning in advance above the strong support level of 93500 to capture higher potential returns. Therefore, the evening trading recommendation is to focus on conservative long positions above the support level. Bitcoin: Long positions can be taken around 94300-94800, with a focus on 96000-96500. Bitcoin 2: Long positions can be taken around 3250-3280, with a focus on 3350-3380.

10:20
1.16 Bitcoin and Ethereum Trend Analysis and Trading Strategy!

On the daily chart, Bitcoin rose to around 98,000 before encountering resistance and falling back, closing lower. Based on the previous consolidation range, the top of the range at 94,500 is now a strong support level. Short-term support is seen at 95,500, with resistance at 97,000. A break above this level would likely lead to 100,000. Ethereum rose to around 3400 before encountering resistance and falling back, closing lower. As mentioned yesterday, the breakout was not very significant. Support is seen at 3280, with resistance at 3350-3400. A break below this level could lead to 3600. On the 4-hour chart, both Bitcoin and Ethereum show signs of a pullback. Support levels are 95,000 for Bitcoin and 3280 for Ethereum. A break below these levels could lead to 94,500-94,000 for Bitcoin and 3200-3170 for Ethereum. Long positions in Bitcoin opened yesterday have a chance to take profit, while long positions in Ethereum have exited with a small profit. This was also mentioned in the comments section. Consider shorting for a pullback. Trading strategy: Short Bitcoin at 95500-96000, target 94500-93500, stop loss above 97000; Short Ethereum at 3300-3330, target 3250-3200, stop loss above 3380. Strategies are time-sensitive; please refer to the homepage for details and receive private real-time guidance.

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