Odaily Planet Daily reports that US President Trump stated at a Republican convention in Florida that he will refuse to sign any other law until Congress approves the "SAVE America Act" (a bill concerning voter identity verification, proof of citizenship, and restrictions on mail-in ballots). This statement could hinder the long-awaited Digital Asset Market Clarity Act for the crypto industry. This crypto bill is currently undergoing difficult negotiations with the Senate Banking Committee and has previously passed the Senate Agriculture Committee. Although Trump has been calling for improved crypto regulation since early last year and making it a White House priority, he currently insists on the voter identity bill as his top priority, stating that it is crucial to ensuring Republican victory in the midterm elections and beyond. Currently, the prediction market Polymarket indicates an 85% probability that Republicans will lose their majority in the House of Representatives. (CoinDesk)

According to Dune data, the forecast market remained active, with the number of transactions reaching a new record high of 47.26 million last week. Polymarket led the way with 26.26 million transactions, followed by Kalshi with 20.04 million transactions.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of Kraken's IPO this year surged to 93% tonight before falling back to 69%, with trading volume exceeding $260,000. Previously, it was reported that Nasdaq partnered with Kraken's parent company, Payward, to promote tokenized stock trading.

According to a Bloomberg report on March 9, Polymarket, an on-chain prediction market platform, plans to add binary options to the S&P 500 index, allowing users to bet on whether the index price will "go up" or "go down".

Despite the surge in oil prices triggered by the Middle East situation, Bitcoin prices have remained within the $67,000 range, without panic selling, suggesting the market may have bottomed out. Analyst Brian Brookshire noted, "Bitcoin's failure to fall when the market is generally under pressure is one of the strongest bottoming signals." On Monday in early Asian trading, WTI crude oil rose to $119 per barrel, a new high since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Iraq warned that approximately 3 million barrels of crude oil production per day globally could be affected due to Iranian threats against oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Kobeissi Letter analysis points out that this situation is "the largest oil supply shock in history," with a daily loss of nearly 20 million barrels of crude oil supply. The surge in oil prices has exacerbated global inflation concerns, leading the market to expect that the Federal Reserve will be unlikely to cut interest rates in 2026. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged on March 18 is about 99%, with only about a 27% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Keeping interest rates unchanged typically tightens financial conditions, boosts the dollar, and puts short-term pressure on Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, although BTC/USD encountered resistance at $74,000, it still recorded its first positive weekly candle in seven weeks and formed an inverted hammer pattern, potentially hinting at a bullish reversal. CoinBureau founder and CEO Nic stated that this price action provides a potential bullish signal for the market. (Cointelegraph)

According to a report by Parity, a prediction market data platform, published on the X platform, data from May 2024 shows that Kalshi and Polymarket, two major prediction markets, added over 273,908 new users last month. Furthermore, Polymarket boasts impressive retention rates: a monthly retention rate of 50.2% and a 3-month retention rate of 30%. Note: Kalshi's new user data is based on publicly available user data; retention rate data is calculated solely from Polymarket data.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of the UAE launching an attack on Iran before March 31st surged to 84% last night before falling back to 33%, with trading volume exceeding $1 million. Earlier reports indicated that the UAE was attacked by Iran last night, potentially impacting the US Al Dhabi Air Base.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, KalshiData stated on its X platform that as of March 5th, @Kalshi's monthly notional trading volume was approximately $1.9 billion, averaging about $380 million per day. If this pace continues, @Kalshi's notional trading volume in March is expected to reach approximately $11.8 billion. Previously, it was reported that both Kalshi and Polymarket were seeking funding at a valuation of approximately $20 billion.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 7th that, according to the Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly in talks with potential investors for a new round of funding, each targeting a valuation of approximately $20 billion. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that the two companies were valued at about half that level at the end of last year. As competition intensifies in the prediction market, both companies are accelerating their efforts to gain user growth and thereby drive these new funding negotiations.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of crude oil prices breaking $100 in March surged from a low of 35% yesterday to 76%, with trading volume exceeding $10 million. Previously, JPMorgan Chase stated that even a mere 3-4 weeks of disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz could force Gulf Cooperation Council member states to shut down oil production and push Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly in talks with potential investors for a new round of funding, each targeting a valuation of approximately $20 billion. Sources familiar with the matter indicate that the two companies were valued at about half that level at the end of last year. As competition intensifies in the prediction market, both companies are accelerating their efforts to grow their user base and use this momentum to drive these new funding negotiations. (Wall Street Journal)

Huoxun Finance News, March 6th - According to Cointelegraph, US Democratic Senator Chris Murphy posted a video on the X platform stating that someone placed a "very specific bet" last Friday that "the US will go to war with Iran on Saturday." He pointed out that people close to Trump clearly knew about Saturday's actions in advance, and these bettors likely had inside information. Murphy warned that if such war betting continues, those around the president might "push us into war" because they could profit from it. Several related bets circulated widely on Polymarket last Saturday. Reuters reported that Murphy and Democratic Representative Mike Levin are drafting a bill to strengthen the regulation of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Levin stated that profiting from the supposed foresight of military action "should absolutely be illegal." He pointed out that while commodity laws prohibit contracts involving events "against the public interest," such as war and terrorism, current rules give prediction markets too much freedom.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of OKX's IPO in 2026 has fallen from a high of 57% in early January to a current 17%, with trading volume exceeding $400,000. Previously, it was reported that ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested in OKX at a valuation of $25 billion. ICE declined to disclose the specific investment amount or terms, but emphasized the shared vision between the two companies.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of "Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Khamenei, becoming Iran's next Supreme Leader" once rose to 82%, but has since fallen back to 50%, with trading volume exceeding $5 million. Previously, it was reported that Trump stated he would not accept Khamenei's son succeeding him as Supreme Leader and that he would personally be involved in Iran's succession arrangements.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 5th that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced an investment in cryptocurrency exchange OKX. This round values OKX at approximately $25 billion, and ICE will also acquire a board seat. OKX will provide ICE with real-time cryptocurrency price data and plans to open trading of on-chain stocks and derivatives listed on the NYSE to its 120 million users starting in the second half of 2026. ICE previously announced the construction of its own blockchain-based tokenized securities trading infrastructure and invested in the prediction market platform Polymarket. OKX previously reached a $500 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding unlicensed money transfers and restarted its operations in the U.S. this year, stating it will expand its team in the U.S. for the aforementioned new products.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested in cryptocurrency exchange OKX at a valuation of $25 billion. ICE declined to disclose the specific investment amount or terms, but emphasized the shared vision between the two companies. OKX will reportedly provide ICE with real-time cryptocurrency price data and plans to open trading of on-chain stocks and derivatives listed on the NYSE to its users starting in the second half of 2026. ICE previously announced the construction of its own blockchain-based tokenized securities trading infrastructure and invested in the prediction market platform Polymarket. OKX previously reached a $500 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding unlicensed money transfers and restarted its operations in the U.S. this year, stating it will expand its team in the U.S. for the aforementioned new products. (Fortune)

Huoxun Finance reported on March 5th that, according to Bloomberg, prediction markets have experienced rapid growth over the past year, attracting widespread attention, including from traditional financial institutions. Currently, the main platforms in the industry include Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion, which are considered to constitute the main competitive landscape. The report points out that as the regulatory environment becomes clearer and trading demand around macro events and trending topics continues to grow, prediction markets are becoming an important new track at the intersection of the crypto industry and traditional finance.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 4th that, according to Lookonchain, a trader with the address 0xa53e, who joined the prediction market Polymarket on February 11th, has been consistently betting on contracts related to a "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire" and has been dubbed "Peacemaker." On-chain data shows that his cumulative bets on these contracts amount to approximately $99,600, with a current unrealized loss of about $11,300. The report indicates that if Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire, this trader is expected to turn a profit and achieve a positive return.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, trader 0xa53e (0xa53e8fc4c2f9910e584de69d8b40a502a638218d) has been betting on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire since joining Polymarket on February 11, and has spent $99,600, currently suffering a floating loss of $113,000.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that while it was previously estimated that traditional markets would take 5 to 10 years to migrate to on-chain on a large scale, the influx of investors into crypto platforms to trade tokenized assets during the US-Israel attacks on Iran and the closure of major global stock markets significantly accelerated expectations for the widespread adoption of "on-chain finance." The crypto perpetual contract platform Hyperliquid became a trading hub for real-world assets (RWAs) such as crude oil and tokenized gold. "For most of Sunday, on-chain finance was the center of global financial markets," data shows that Hyperliquid's combined trading volume exceeded $11.5 billion over Saturday and Sunday. Furthermore, Tether's tokenized gold product, Tether Gold, saw its 24-hour trading volume surge to over $300 million at one point, and prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket also experienced significant increases in trading volume. (Cointelegraph)