Odaily Planet Daily reports that the cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket is embroiled in insider trading controversy due to predictions related to US President Donald Trump's policies and statements. Data shows that from April 5th to 8th alone, the market generated approximately 413 million predictions related to the situation in Iran, involving over $100 million. Analysts point out that Trump's highly uncertain decision-making style has significantly boosted prediction market activity, with issues such as whether he will take military action against Iran and whether he will push for a ceasefire becoming high-frequency trading targets. Related trading volumes surged rapidly after his social media posts. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. has been revealed to hold shares in Polymarket and also serves as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data shows that political predictions have become the second largest prediction market category after sports. Despite the escalating controversy, the overall attitude of US regulators remains lenient, driving the continued expansion of this sector. (Fortune)
The Trump effect ignites the prediction market: Polymarket trading volume surges but embroiled in insider trading controversy.
2026-04-23 14:59:21
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