Uniswap founder explains pricing discrepancies in prediction markets: Not a user structure issue, but rather due to differences in event definitions and rules.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams pointed out in an article on the X platform that the prediction market Kalshi prices the "US acquisition of Greenland" at approximately 42%, while Polymarket prices it at only 15%–23%. This significant price difference is not due to differences in user groups, but rather to the differences in the specific betting targets themselves. If it were merely a difference in user structure, a trader with access to both platforms could quickly eliminate the price difference through arbitrage. However, the reality is that Polymarket prices the "probability of the event occurring within 2026 (currently around 23%)," while Kalshi prices the "probability of the event occurring throughout Trump's entire term (currently around 45%)." These are not the same event. Furthermore, differences in question wording, settlement conditions, oracle design, and different risk pricing logic all contribute to the price differences.