Bitcoin Holds $115K as Rally Remains Fragile Ahead of FOMC

Key Takeaways

• Flows: Ethereum spot ETFs added $360 million on Sept 15 (fifth straight day); Bitcoin spot ETFs added $260 million (sixth straight day). US spot ETF inflows remain well above normal ranges.
• Momentum vs. conviction: The RSI surged to 78.1, while CVD weakened, and volumes remained flat, indicating strong momentum but limited conviction.
• Derivatives: Futures open interest rose to approximately $47.5 billion; perpetual CVD increased to $48.5 million, indicating aggressive buy-side leverage.
• On-chain mix: Active addresses slipped, transfer volume increased, fees dipped, with capital moving, but user activity is muted.
• Event risk: The Federal Reserve decision tomorrow is the single biggest directional catalyst; reduced hedging (skew down) raises the risk of a volatility surprise.