The Alt Season Paradox: Why Independent Reserve's Trading Chief Still Sees Bitcoin Winning

In August 2025, while Bitcoin, the crypto king, clawed its way to a record $124,000 before slipping to $108,000, Ethereum ignited the markets with a 35% surge, soaring to $4,955 and currently holding strong at $4,350. As Bitcoin’s steady reign falters under profit-taking, Ethereum’s vibrant ecosystem of DeFi and smart contracts is stealing the spotlight, while other altcoins are painting the crypto landscape green, with the altcoin season index sitting comfortably around 50/100 — clear signs that capital is rotating away from Bitcoin for the first time in over a year.

But Mark Wong, Head of Trading at Independent Reserve, sees something different happening on his exchange's trading desk. While market dominance metrics suggest Bitcoin is losing its grip, Wong argues the opposite: institutional behavior is revealing Bitcoin's true strength precisely when the headlines suggest weakness.

A Tale of Two Markets

"We've certainly seen increased trading activity on our platform, particularly via OTC, with volumes measured in USD terms significantly higher as many assets have appreciated this year," Wong explained.

But beneath the surface activity, he's observing two distinct trading behaviors that tell a more nuanced story about crypto's evolution.

"On one hand, institutions and larger investors are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, signaling confidence in its enduring role as the asset with the strongest track record in the space. On the other hand, some early investors are taking the opportunity to lock in profits after a substantial run-up," Wong told Blockhead.

This bifurcation – institutions accumulating while early adopters take profits – represents a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's market structure. Wong points to the stabilizing effect of institutional participation, which creates "what could be seen as a price floor that helps dampen volatility."

The evidence backs up Wong's observations. Independent Reserve's latest Cryptocurrency Index (IRCI) for Singapore highlights that 86% of Singaporeans view Bitcoin as money, a store of value, or an investment asset. More tellingly, 59% of investors prefer Bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies, and 68% of local crypto investors actively hold Bitcoin in their portfolios.

The Coca-Cola Theory of Crypto

When asked for his views about the current altcoin surge, with the altcoin season index climbing toward levels that historically signal major rotations away from Bitcoin, Wong offered a confident perspective.

"There's definitely a growing narrative around altcoins, particularly with some being positioned as part of Treasury acquisitions," he acknowledged. "But it's important to remember that Bitcoin has unique characteristics that set it apart – true decentralization, a fixed supply, and over a decade of legacy as the most trusted digital asset."

"Bitcoin is like Coca-Cola – the original that defined the category. Plenty of other soft drinks have come and gone, some flashier or sweeter for a moment, but Coke remains the reference point. In the same way, Bitcoin leads every cycle, and altcoins just follow the path it sets."

The math supports this view. While nearly 30,000 new tokens are created daily, there remains only one Bitcoin ticker. But Wong's argument goes deeper than scarcity, highlighting market psychology and capital flow patterns that most observers miss.

"Altcoins often follow once Bitcoin has rallied and created the liquidity and confidence for capital to rotate," Wong explained. "Some may outperform for a period, but they are still riding on the wave that Bitcoin generates."

The Index Fund Insight

Wong's advice to institutional clients reveals sophisticated thinking about crypto portfolio construction. "I tell clients to think of Bitcoin the way they would an index fund: it's the proven winner that keeps compounding. It's the asset institutions look to for credibility and long-term value. Altcoins can complement a portfolio, but they're far closer to penny stocks."

This framework helps explain what Wong sees as the fundamental misunderstanding driving current market commentary. While headlines focus on rallies in altcoins, Wong argues these moves actually validate Bitcoin's position rather than threaten it.

"Bitcoin continues to be the only asset consistently breaking new highs," he noted.

"Historically, it sets the tone for the entire market. When Bitcoin rallies or shows strong momentum, it creates optimism and liquidity that often rotates into altcoins."

The data supports Wong's risk-adjusted perspective. Over the past five years, Bitcoin has delivered a Sharpe ratio of 1.24, meaning its risk-adjusted returns have outperformed both gold (0.82) and the S&P 500 (0.74). That performance helps explain why institutions continue treating Bitcoin as the cornerstone of their portfolios, he explained.

Smart Money vs. Fast Money

The distinction between institutional and retail behavior during altcoin seasons reveals deeper truths about crypto market maturation. Wong's observations from Independent Reserve's trading floor show a clear bifurcation in allocation strategies.

"Institutional demand is overwhelmingly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum," Wong said. "These assets have the liquidity, track record and regulatory clarity that institutions require when allocating capital. They’re also the only cryptocurrencies with the market depth to realistically absorb institutional flows. For most other tokens, the market is simply too small to handle sizable investment. By contrast, we see far more retail-driven activity in other altcoins, where investors are often chasing momentum or new narratives."

This dynamic reinforces Wong's view that Bitcoin and Ethereum are maturing into core portfolio holdings, while altcoins remain largely speculative trades. The pattern becomes even more pronounced when examining the actual capital flows behind the headlines.

Research shows that retail attention often has a negative effect on cryptocurrency returns, while institutional attention tends to have a positive effect. For Bitcoin, this trend is particularly clear in 2024's dramatic transfer of holdings. "In 2024, individuals sold around 525,000 BTC to institutions and ETFs, which collectively added about 831,000 BTC to their holdings," Wong pointed out. "Looking at the price action over the year, it's hard to argue that institutions have been on the losing side."

The implications are striking: while retail chases short-term altcoin pumps that frequently fizzle out, institutions are steadily building long-term Bitcoin portfolios.

"The transfer of 525,000 BTC from individuals to institutions tells the story: retail is cashing out, but institutions are positioning for the future."

While retail investors can sometimes catch new narratives earlier, Wong pointed to Independent Reserve's IRCI data showing that "investors who spread their portfolios across too many tokens generally underperform. Those with more concentrated exposure, often anchored in Bitcoin, report stronger returns."

The survivorship bias in altcoin performance persists, in his opinion: "Many tokens that surged in the 2020 to 2021 cycle have struggled to hold their value into 2025. This is a classic case of survivorship bias: a handful of tokens surge, while thousands fade into irrelevance."

Reading the Cycle

Rather than providing a fixed timeline for when altcoin season might end, Wong focuses on pattern recognition and warning signs that most traders miss. Historical precedent shows Bitcoin dominance dropping dramatically during bull market peaks – from 96% to 36% in the 2017 cycle, and from 73% to 41% in 2021.

"When the market loses steam and fear begins to set in, the flight to quality assets within the cryptocurrency space persists, and Bitcoin dominance rebounds," Wong explained. But he cautioned against timing the market: "It is better to look for signs of froth in the ecosystem, rather than commit to a fixed timeline."

Instead of trying to time the market, Wong suggests dollar-cost averaging, or regularly investing a fixed amount into an asset regardless of price movements. According to the IRCI, over 57% of Singaporean investors who follow this approach report making money.

Digital Gold in Action

Wong's perspective on Bitcoin's recent price action challenges the conventional wisdom about "digital gold" behavior. "As Bitcoin becomes a larger part of corporate treasury strategies and its market capitalization grows, lower price volatility is a natural outcome," he said.

Rather than viewing Bitcoin's relative stability during the altcoin surge as weakness, Wong sees validation of the store-of-value thesis. "Flat performance while altcoins and risk assets rally does not undermine the 'digital gold' narrative – it reinforces it. Gold does not soar when equities rally, and Bitcoin is now showing the same behavior."

Since the November 2024 election, Bitcoin has climbed from around $70,200 to above $115,000 — a gain of roughly 72.5% that Wong argued gets lost in the altcoin noise. "Some investors argue that the higher the price, the more limited the upside, but that is a psychological bias," he contends, referencing the repeated skepticism Bitcoin has faced at every milestone.

The Long Game

Still, Wong doesn’t take the usual maximalist stance. When asked whether Bitcoin’s rise needs to come at the expense of other cryptocurrencies, he pushes back on the idea entirely.

“Bitcoin doing well is obviously a win,” he says. “But that doesn’t mean everything else has to underperform. A strong Ethereum, for example, is good for the entire ecosystem. It’s not either-or.”

That mindset runs counter to the zero-sum thinking common in crypto circles. Wong sees Bitcoin as a core pillar – one that supports the broader market, not one that competes with it.

Even as altcoins rally and Bitcoin dominance fluctuates, his advice to both institutional and retail investors stays the same: follow the flows, not the narratives. In his view, smart money continues to accumulate Bitcoin, and that’s the signal that matters.

Whether that thesis holds will become clear in time. But Wong’s framework offers a clear counter to the idea that Bitcoin’s best days are behind it. If anything, he sees it as the foundation for what’s still to come.

Hey there! Just a quick note to let you know that this article is brought to you by Independent Reserve (IR). Founded in 2013, IR is one of APAC's most established and trusted crypto exchanges, and was the first to be licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). IR provides a secure, easy-to-use platform with competitive fees, advanced trading tools, and educational resources for both individual and institutional investors. The company also supports communities by championing equal opportunities for individuals with special needs and athletes.