Bitcoin Could Grow 120% in 2025 If It Follows Typical Third-Year Trend

The Bitcoin growth cycle shows a potential increase in 2025 if it follows the typical pattern of the third year in its cycle. Bitcoin's price has dropped significantly after briefly reaching $108K this week, falling to around $103K in the past 24 hours. However, according to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán, the Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend offers a clearer picture of the cryptocurrency’s long-term price cycle. By looking at Bitcoin's performance since 2011, it becomes evident that the crypto follows a predictable rhythm, with each three years of growth followed by a consolidation year. According to the analyst, understanding this pattern can help investors focus on the broader market forces that have shaped Bitcoin's price over the years. The Cyclical Nature of Bitcoin Price Bitcoin experienced steady growth from 2011 to 2013. In 2011, the cryptocurrency grew by a modest 10.5%, followed by a substantial 156.4% increase in 2012. In 2013, it surged by an astounding 5,549.2%, marking the highest growth rate on record. This explosive rally was followed by a sharp correction in 2014, with Bitcoin dropping 59.2%. The next two years—2015 and 2016—saw modest recoveries of 34.8% and 120.7%, respectively. A new bull run occurred in 2017, with Bitcoin climbing 1,287.4%. The following year, 2018, saw a steep 72.2% decline, consistent with the typical post-halving correction. In 2019, Bitcoin rebounded strongly, growing 92.1%. The uptrend continued into 2020 and 2021, with 2020 posting a 291.1% increase, the highest cycle growth. But 2022 marked another major correction, with a 64.8% drop. Bitcoin’s recovery resumed in 2023 and 2024, with growth of 156.5% and 118.7%, respectively. Early data suggests that 2025 has registered a more modest 12.5% gain. Alemán believes that if Bitcoin mirrors its typical third-year momentum, it could climb as much as 120%, potentially reaching $205,000 by the end of the year. Third Consecutive Bullish Year According to the analyst, if the current trend continues, 2025 could close as the third consecutive bullish year, completing another positive cycle for Bitcoin.  Other metrics, like Realized Cap, support Bitcoin's cyclical nature, which reached new all-time highs in 2025.

On-Chain Metrics and Open Interest Delta Meanwhile, another significant metric being examined is the 180-day Open Interest (OI) Delta. According to crypto analytics platform Alphractal data, the OI Delta has recently turned negative, indicating that more leveraged positions closed than opened over the past few months. Major contributors to this decline include platforms like Bitget and CME, which together have seen over $10 billion in reduced open interest. Historically, a negative OI Delta has coincided with local market bottoms as observed in 2021 and 2023, often preceding significant price rebounds. A reversal in this trend, turning the OI Delta positive, could signal a renewed bullish phase.