Played the Bounce, Avoided the Break – How Timing Beat Volatility

Asset	Positioning Transition	May 30 Price	Weekly High	June 6 Price	Change	Verdict
BTC	53% → 75% → 40%	$106,200	$109,700	$103,000	–3.0%	✅ Exited near top before liquidations hit
ETH	5% → 12% → 8%	$2,640	$2,720	$2,460	–6.8%	✅ Reduced ahead of steep drawdown
SOL	2% → 8% → 2%	$166	$159.3	$147	–11.4%	✅ Small net exposure minimized downside impact

What We Got Right ✅

➕ De-Risked Ahead of Expected Volatility
We significantly raised cash on May 30, anticipating ETF flow exhaustion and weekend downside. This call proved correct, as Bitcoin dropped below $101K and altcoins saw double-digit losses during a wave of liquidations.

➕ Trimmed Altcoins Before Breakdown
We maintained minimal exposure to Solana and reduced ETH again after it lost momentum and ETF inflows slowed. These moves helped cushion the portfolio during the sharp correction in high-beta assets.

➕ Stayed Anchored in BTC While Reducing Risk
Despite reducing exposure, we kept Bitcoin as the core allocation. BTC remained the most resilient asset during the selloff, reinforcing its role as a safe haven during deleveraging phases.

What We Got Wrong ❌

❌ Could Have Rotated Out of ETH Sooner
Although we caught the directional move, we briefly increased ETH exposure early in the week amid strong ETF flows. The rotation was reversed quickly, but the timing could have been sharper.

✅ Still Protected Capital Effectively
Despite some whipsaw in ETH, our heavy cash allocation and overall defensive bias ensured we outperformed the broader market, which fell 5–10% across key assets during the week.

Key Lessons

? ETF Flow Deterioration Is a Leading Signal
Once Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed and ETH's strong streak broke, price action quickly followed. Tracking inflows remains crucial for identifying shifts in institutional conviction.

? High IPO Activity = Top Signal
The wave of crypto IPOs and share sales from insiders (e.g., Circle, Kraken, Pump.fun) signaled internal skepticism about the sustainability of recent valuations. Our decision to go defensive aligned with that signal.

⚠️ Politics & Liquidity Create Volatility Storms
The Musk–Trump clash triggered fear and liquidations in a market already under pressure. When sentiment is fragile, even narrative-driven events can spark broad corrections.

Final Takeaway

This week validated our cautious approach. We de-risked early, maintained high cash, and trimmed altcoin exposure ahead of a broad-based correction. The market is now in a fragile consolidation phase, with retail participation light and institutional flows weakening.

We expect volatility to remain elevated heading into the weekend. With macro catalysts lacking and no new bullish triggers in sight, we are staying cautious and fully prepared to re-enter when structural support returns.