Bitcoin’s New High Indicates Bullish Directional Bets, Hints Stronger Market Rally

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to make greater bullish moves, what do fund flows behind such movements mean?

Today, crypto analyst Satoshi Club answered this compelling question. First, the analyst acknowledged that institutional buys are the major drivers of Bitcoin’s ongoing market rally.

Secondly, the analyst issued fresh data that revealed that BTC’s recent surge from last month’s plunges near $75k is being fuelled by directional bets, not arbitrage.

Bitcoin benefiting from bullish bets

Metrics from Satoshi further noted that funds worth billions of dollars have recently entered into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating enthusiastic sentiment as the crypto asset rose from $75k to more than $100k.

As reported by the data, such influxes are mainly triggered by directional bets, not traditional market-neutral strategies. Currently, institutional investors majorly use directional bets (which focus on price action, not price discrepancies associated with arbitrage opportunities) to capture gains.

As per the data, the 11 US Bitcoin ETFs experienced inflows worth $2.97 billion last month and another inflows valued at $2.64 billion this month. Since their launch in January last year, entire net inflows have exceeded $41 billion.

Previously, institutional clients utilized these ETFs as arbitrage opportunities by purchasing spot ETFs and putting CME Bitcoin futures on sale to gain returns from price differentials while reducing directional exposure.

However, the latest metrics from Satoshi Club disclosed a different revelation. Since early last month, leverage funds have decreased their net short positions from 17,141 contracts to 14,139 contracts.

If institutional investors were using arbitrage as the main strategy, there would be an increase in short positions. This development shows that current inflows into these ETFs are driven mainly by bullish directional bets, not hedging.

The absence of an increase in short positions proves that these inflows are directional. This suggests that institutions and hedge funds are mainly utilizing spot Bitcoin ETFs to convey long-term enthusiasm for BTC’s price movement.

BTC moves into a new accumulation phase

On Thursday, May 22, 2025, Bitcoin climbed to a new ATH of $111,970. However, today, the asset experienced a slight drop, currently standing at $108,323, down 2.6% from yesterday.

This tremendous climb shows that the asset has entered into a strong accumulation stage for the first time since January. This suggests a bullish sentiment driven by a wide, intense acquisition by both whales and small investors.

The change in ETF usage shows a crucial time for BTC’s institutional acquisition, indicating that investor attitude is turning to be intensely optimistic in expectation of greater price surges.